Perbandingan Metode Forecasting Model Moving Average dan Naive Pada Data Penjualan Mobil Zenix Tipe Hybrid Secara Whole Sales Berdasarkan Nilai Error

Abstract

Forecasting is very important for companies so that production readiness can be prepared thoroughly, such as readiness of manpower, production capacity, material requirements, etc. In forecasting there are various methods that can be used. However, in this research we will only use two methods, namely the moving average method and the naïve method. The aim of this research is to compare the two methods in order to obtain the method that is closest to accurate. For the simulation stage, we use sales data for Zenix hybrid cars in whole sales or from factory to dealer in the period June 2023 to May 2024. Based on the results of our research with the data we present, it is known that the moving average method has a smaller error value with The Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD) error value is 588, the Mean Square Error (MSE) is 671.431, and the Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) is 0.321374.